How to read it: This table logs anomalous mining streaks where a single pool successfully mined 6 or more consecutive blocks. It details the pool involved, the length of the streak, the exact block height it started, and the total duration it took to mine those blocks.

Key Insights:

• Reorg & Fork Risk: Long streaks increase the theoretical probability of block races and reorganizations — though in practice, no confirmed reorg has been attributed to pool concentration in the modern era.
• Interpreting the propensity score: A score above 1× means more streaks occurred than the Poisson model predicts. However, the qualifying event count is typically small, so the excess often falls within random variance — especially for pools whose hashrate grew rapidly. Use it as a prompt for further investigation, not a verdict.

How the numbers are calculated: The % era avg shown next to each pool is the block-weighted average share from that pool's first qualifying streak month through present — so each pool's baseline starts when it first became relevant, not at a common fixed date. This keeps the propensity denominator honest. The “1 in X Yrs” likelihood for each individual streak uses the pool's actual monthly hash share at the time of that event, so a streak that happened when Foundry was at 31% uses 31%, not the era average.

How to read it: The quadrant matrix plots each pool's empty block rate since 2022 (X-axis) against their last-30-day rate (Y-axis). The dotted diagonal is the "no change" reference — pools above it are getting worse, pools below it are improving. Threshold lines mark the network-weighted average.

Quadrants:

• 🔴 Persistent Offenders: High historically AND recently — chronic spy-miners.
• 🚨 Newly Suspicious: Previously clean, now deteriorating — worth watching.
• 📉 Reformed: Historically bad but recently improving — behaviour change detected.
• ✅ Clean: Consistently low empty block rates — good network stewards.

How to read it: The diagonal shows self-transitions (same pool mines both blocks N and N+1) — these are the second-block-uplift values from Act II. Off-diagonal cells reveal whether two distinct pools hand off blocks to each other more or less often than expected by their hash share.

Key Insights:

• Coordination clusters: Two pools consistently lifting each other's transitions suggest shared infrastructure, colocation, or merged-mining arrangements.
• Avoidance patterns: Blue cells (lift < 0.85×) can indicate competing pools whose templates differ enough that one rarely solves the next block after the other.
• Statistical threshold: Only pools with ≥ 5,000 blocks are shown. Pairs flagged as anomalies have lift > 1.15× and at least 200 observed transitions.

Baseline methodology (block-weighted): Expected transitions use each pool's contemporaneous monthly hash share at the time of each block — the same approach as the Second Block Uplift chart. A pool that grew from 10% → 35% over 4 years does not get a flat 22% baseline; each block pair is weighted by the actual share in that month. This prevents fast-growing pools from appearing artificially anomalous in their early-period transitions.

How to read it: Each line tracks a pool's Z-Score across up to 10 daily 144-block windows (~10 days). Z-Score measures how many standard deviations a pool's block production deviates from the expectation given its market share.

Threshold bands:

• Red zone (|Z| ≥ 3): Statistically improbable — a single occurrence is a strong anomaly.
• Amber watch zone (|Z| ≥ 2): Elevated — worth monitoring, not conclusive alone.
• Persistence rule: A pool that stays in the amber or red zone across multiple consecutive windows is a "ghost hashrate" suspect.

How to read it: Monthly coefficient of variation (CV) of inter-block arrival times since 2022 — aggregated from ~2,800 weekly snapshots. 🔴 Red = low CV (suspicious: consistent, industrial timing). 🔵 Blue = high CV (normal: irregular, retail/decentralised). The China mining ban (2021) and 4th Halving (2024) are annotated as structural inflection points.

Why it matters: Pools with chronically low entropy operate owned hardware at industrial scale — making them uniquely capable of running the multi-block streaks in Act I. The Actor Archetypes panel below cross-references this signal with the most recent 6-month window.