Nail-Biting Index: A data-driven measure of tennis match drama
Tennis fans fall victim to recency bias—claiming every new five-setter is "the greatest match ever." The Nail-Biting Index cuts through the noise by measuring actual drama through comebacks, tiebreaks, and clutch play. Some iconic matches barely register, while forgotten battles from the past prove statistically more dramatic.
Rank | Match | Tournament | Round | Score | NBI | Drama Tags |
---|
The NBI Formula
Set Closeness
Measures how close each set was—smaller average margins mean tighter, more competitive sets.
Comeback Factor
Rewards matches where a player comes back from a significant deficit, especially from two sets down.
Lead Changes
Counts how often the match momentum shifted, showing back-and-forth battles.
Tiebreak Count
Number of sets decided by a tiebreak, highlighting high-pressure moments.
Match Duration
Normalizes match length per set—longer, drawn-out battles score higher.
Break Point Drama
Reflects the share of break points saved, emphasizing clutch play under pressure.
Final Set Tiebreak
Indicates if the match was decided by a tiebreak in the final set.